Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
